The expanded format hands a lifeline to the mid-tier nations. A few of them are going to make somebody very uncomfortable.
The format favours the brave
When third place can still advance, the underdog's job changes. You do not need to beat a giant — you need to not lose badly, then steal a result somewhere. That is a far more achievable brief.
It is the kind of maths that turns a "happy to be here" side into a genuine knockout threat.
Where the surprises live
Look to Africa and Asia, where the extra qualifying slots reward teams that have been knocking on the door for years. Add the host-region sides riding home crowds and short travel.
These teams arrive fresh, organised, and underestimated — a dangerous combination in a one-off knockout.
The trap for the favourites
Every tournament has a giant that treats the Round of 32 as a formality and gets ambushed. In 2026 there are simply more chances for that to happen, earlier.
If you like a flutter, the smart money in the opening knockout round is rarely on a clean sweep of the seeds.
